Set to lose 400,000+ members in five years
Can Seventh-day Adventists learn from the history of others? The Presbyterian Church USA (PCUSA) approved the ordination of women as elders in 1929 and as ministers in 1956. In 2013 its General Assembly approved the ordination of openly gay persons to ministry. Predictably, in 2014 the church redefined marriage as a covenant uniting two persons (rather than as uniting a husband and wife). These actions were ratified in 2014 and 2015 respectively.
It was anticipated that membership would increase on the basis of this more “inclusive” denominational stance. What actually occurred was that the Presbyterian Church USA lost a quarter of a million members in 2013 and is projecting average losses between 75,000 and 100,000 members annually in the 2015-2020 period. The following membership numbers are based upon a PCUSA budgeting presentation.
YEAR MEMBERSHIP (End-of-year)
2012 2,004,192 (- 82,952)
2013 1,921,240 (-254,473)
2014 1,666,767 (-100,000 Projected Membership Loss)
2015 1,566,767 (-100,000 Projected Membership Loss)
2016 1,466,767 (-100,000 Projected Membership Loss)
2017 1,391,767 (- 75,000 Projected Membership Loss)
2018 1,316,767 (- 75,000 Projected Membership Loss)
2019 1,241,767 (- 75,000 Projected Membership Loss)
2020 1,166,767 (- 75,000 Projected Membership Loss)
(Source: PCUSA Budgeting slide: http://www.layman.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/statement-of-cash-flow-per-capita-budget_Page_2.jpg)
Some of this decline is based on the death of aging members. Still, this would only account for a limited portion. The extraordinary projections almost certainly reflect anticipation of continued exodus of members to more conservative Presbyterian bodies. These include the Presbyterian Church of America (formed in 1973 and rejects women’s ordination), Evangelical Presbyterian Church, and ECO: A Covenant Order of Evangelical Presbyterians formed in 2012. As of November 13, 2015, ECO included 231 congregations.
Meanwhile, according to apportionment numbers, even with 3% annual increases in 2017-2020, PCUSA will substantially exhaust most of its financial resources by the close of that period.
Women’s ordination weakens a body, SOGI issues (Sexual Orientation/Gender Identity) destroy it. In 2009 the Evangelical Lutheran Church of America approved both same-sex “marriage” and the ordination of gay clergy, only to loose more than 600 congregations in the next two years. PCUSA and ELCA seem engaged in a competition over which denomination will be the first to be completely dissolved.
UPDATE 2016-02-11: There are varying reports about membership loss numbers as reflected in comments in links below. It in not completely clear which numbers are more correct, although the large 2013 numbers we draw from the budget department slide could reflect the same-sex “marriage decision and its straw-that-broke-the-camel’s-back effect and rise of ECO. Either way, we hold that this demonstrates a correlation between the pro-gay decisions and the exodus from PCUSA. Those wishing to follow up more closely can peruse the links provided by brother Pickle in his post. –Admin